RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Richmond area health leaders are looking ahead to when the state could see a downward trend in COVID-19 cases.

During Monday’s City of Richmond COVID briefing, Richmond and Henrico Health Districts Director Dr. Danny Avula, said reaching a omicron-variant peak may take a little more time.

“Virginia, we’re either at the peak or will be in the next couple of days,” he said.

Because of the lag in data reporting, he said it’s unknown when the peak can exactly happen.

“The peak of disease has been so high with this omicron wave, that it is going to take us a while probably four to six weeks to come back down to base line levels of COVID activity,” Avula said.

Virginia could come down the other side of the curve soon, but not without already overwhelmed hospital systems seeing a high demand for ventilators.

Dr. Avula said right now, about 386 patients with COVID-19 in Virginia need a ventilator—that’s compared to last year’s peak of 350 people.

“Still a context that requires care and attention and where we’re trying to minimize the spread of disease so that we minimize the impact on those that are more susceptible to severe illness,” he said.

A sign of good news however, hospitalizations are declining. Avula said the number of Virginians hospitalized with the virus is currently 3,500–that’s down from 3,800 patients last week.

“Right now we’re still seeing very high COVID transmission across the entire state and that stands true in Richmond and Henrico as well,” he said.

The positivity rate in Virginia is 29.8%. Avula said anything above 10% is considered high community transmission. In Richmond, the positivity rate sits at 26.9% while Henrico County sits at 24%.

Across the state nearly 80% of adults have one dose of the vaccine. In Richmond, that’s 61.6% of people and Henrico has 74.6% of adults with one dose.

Amy Popovich, Nurse Manager for the health district, said testing events continue to operate at capacity–administering about 3,000 tests a week.

She said test demand has declined, but vaccination and testing sites are still open this week.

The Virginia Department of Health has received a low amount of at-home test kits. Their focus for distributing them will be through community partners to the most vulnerable communities, instead of handing them out at test sites.