Tuesday, Sept. 27 Tracking Timeline

This article is no longer being updated. Find the Tracking Timeline for Wednesday here.

11 p.m. UPDATE: RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Hurricane Ian has now recorded top-speed winds of 120 mph and is 110 miles southwest of Naples, Florida. The storm is continuing to move north-northeast at 10 mph.

The storm is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday afternoon near Venice, Florida.

The storm will then slowly make its way across Florida on Thursday before emerging off the coastline on Thursday evening.

The storm will then eventually turn back inland before reaching the western part of North Carolina Saturday night. This is when Central Virginia is expected to deal with the rainfall from Ian’s remains over the weekend. 

5:30 p.m. UPDATE: RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Hurricane Ian is now 230 miles south of Sarasota Florida with top winds of 120 mph. The storm is moving to the north at 10 mph.

Hurricane warnings have been extended south along the western coast of Florida, reinforcing the expectation that landfall will be late tomorrow afternoon. Early evening conditions are now expected to occur south of Tampa, closer to Sarasota.

That will move the threat of the highest storm surge to the south from Sarasota down to Cape Coral and other southern areas.

Once on land, the storm will slowly cross Florida, going very near Orlando. Once that is done, the storm is expected to briefly go back into the Atlantic Ocean before making a second landfall in Georgia.

By Saturday, the storm will decay over upstate South Carolina.

The remnants of “Ian” will serve to bring Central Virginia rain over the weekend. Saturday will most likely be the wettest, with periods of rain for Sunday and Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday.

11:40 a.m. UPDATE: RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — As of midday Tuesday, Hurricane Ian had wind speeds reaching 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 storm. Ian is expected to strengthen over the next 12 to 24 hours and could work up Category 4 hurricane status, by having winds of 130 miles per hour by later Tuesday night.

Ian will begin to turn toward the northeast late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning and head toward the west coast of Florida.

Weather models showed interesting updates to the predicted path of Ian throughout the morning Tuesday. The trend shows Ian moving farther south of Tampa Bay, closer to Sarasota, and even as far south as Punta Gorda and possibly Fort Meyers. The storm will be a Category 3 storm with winds around 125 mph at landfall, but the timing also looks to be earlier, possibly Wednesday night.

Ian is expected to bring as much as 10 to 20 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, across western and Central Florida. The very strong winds will also be an issue from Tampa to Fort Meyers. The storm surge could be significant in Punta Gorda, Sanibel Island and in Fort Meyers where we could see a storm surge of 6 to 12 feet. However, in Tampa, the landscape will look a little different. The water in the bay will be going out to sea, instead of inland, because the winds will be blowing from the land to the gulf, north of where the storm makes landfall.

Once Ian makes landfall it will slowly begin to weaken as it moves up the Florida coast and then into the southeastern states. The remnants of Ian will affect Virginia weather this weekend, providing some much-needed beneficial rain beginning very late Friday night and continuing into Monday morning.

The remnants of Ian will be seen across Virginia through Saturday and Sunday, but our area shouldn’t see any strong or damaging winds, nor are we expecting any severe weather with the tail-end of the storm. 

Right now, it looks like the first rain from Ian should arrive in Virginia overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Saturday is expected to be a very wet day with steady, to possibly heavy, rain at times. More rain is likely for Sunday as the remnants of Ian linger in the area.

Ian will slowly depart early Monday morning so any showers should finally give way to a mixture of sun and clouds during the afternoon.