UVA COVID-19 model predicts coronavirus cases in Virginia could peak by Thanksgiving

Virginia News

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — The University of Virginia has released their weekly report, predicting that Virginia could experience a peak in coronavirus cases in November.

The model — released last week by UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute — projects that Virginia will see a peak in COVID-19 cases during the week heading into Thanksgiving. The model predicts that Virginia will end the week with 8,394 new COVID-19 cases.

UVA’s model is designed to project what could happen not what will happen.

Based on the model, Virginia could exceed 200,000 coronavirus cases by November 26.


  • Charles City County: 501 cases, 16 deaths
  • Chesterfield County: 27,825 cases, 431 deaths
  • City of Colonial Heights: 1,708 cases, 61 deaths
  • City of Hopewell: 2,593 cases, 75 deaths
  • City of Petersburg: 3,879 cases, 86 deaths
  • City of Richmond: 17,011 cases, 266 deaths
  • Dinwiddie County: 2,126 cases, 44 deaths
  • Goochland County: 1,451 cases, 23 deaths
  • Hanover County: 8,139 cases, 158 deaths
  • Henrico County: 25,367 cases, 612 deaths
  • New Kent County: 1,499 cases, 18 deaths
  • Powhatan County: 1,911 cases, 17 deaths

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