UVA COVID-19 model predicts coronavirus cases in Virginia could peak by Thanksgiving

Virginia News

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — The University of Virginia has released their weekly report, predicting that Virginia could experience a peak in coronavirus cases in November.

The model — released last week by UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute — projects that Virginia will see a peak in COVID-19 cases during the week heading into Thanksgiving. The model predicts that Virginia will end the week with 8,394 new COVID-19 cases.

UVA’s model is designed to project what could happen not what will happen.

Based on the model, Virginia could exceed 200,000 coronavirus cases by November 26.


  • Charles City County: 398 cases, 11 deaths
  • Chesterfield County: 23,594 cases, 306 deaths
  • City of Colonial Heights: 1,364 cases, 41 deaths
  • City of Hopewell: 2,100 cases, 47 deaths
  • City of Petersburg: 3,161 cases, 52 deaths
  • City of Richmond: 14,849 cases, 197 deaths
  • Dinwiddie County: 1,791 cases, 27 deaths
  • Goochland County: 1,209 cases, 15 deaths
  • Hanover County: 6,663 cases, 128 deaths
  • Henrico County: 21,446 cases, 499 deaths
  • New Kent County: 1,244 cases, 12 death
  • Powhatan County: 1,644 cases, 8 deaths

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