RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — We are still tracking a winter storm destined for the second half of this weekend, but, it’s currently looking as though it really might not carry with it much winter weather in the form of snow.

The origin of this storm will be an upper-level low that will slide out of Arkansas and move toward the Gulf.  As it hits the warmer Gulf of Mexico air and water, it will rapidly intensify into a new and stronger storm near the Florida Panhandle by Saturday morning.  That system will spread rain into Georgia and South Carolina during Saturday morning and afternoon. 

By Saturday evening that new system will move north into Georgia and that will push the rain farther north into North Carolina and southern Virginia by Saturday night.  The rain will pick up by early Sunday morning and we will see periods of steady to locally heavy rain during Sunday.

Our temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 30s for Saturday night, as the rain moves in and we will only climb into the lower to middle 40s at best for Sunday. 

One of the concerns with this winter storm is that it will pull colder air into central Virginia.  However, this will not come from the Northeast or the Ohio Valley, but rather from the higher levels of the storm system. Basically, the harder it rains, the more the cold air will slide down the clouds toward the Earth and that will allow the rain to mix with snow. It is not believed this system will be strong enough to make a full change-over to all snow for any length of time in Central Virginia. 

If you are looking to see snow, you will probably have to go to the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains and Southern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. 

For western Central Virginia, areas along US Highway 15, including Farmville, Prince Edward County, Cumberland County, Western Powhatan County (west of 522), Western Goochland County (West of 522), Louisa County (west of 522), Fluvanna County and Buckingham County and points west, the system is expected to give mostly rain but at times a rainy-snow, that is rain with snowflakes mixing in, but not amounting to much.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Virginia, this is going to be a cold rainy stretch of weather from late Saturday night through most of Sunday. We could see an inch of rain with locally higher amounts across the region.

During Sunday night, that system will move into southeastern Virginia and then out into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday morning. That will bring an end to the rain and any mix from west to east by Monday morning. We should see partly sunny skies return for Monday and it will remain seasonable with highs around 50.

Another shot of mild weather will return for Valentine’s Day through all of next week.