RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) – We have a beautiful early Fall day in store for our Saturday! It was a chilly start this morning, with mainly 40s and low 50s on the map. We will see a mix of sun and clouds today with a high of 75 degrees. This is a few degrees cooler than the average of 79. Perfect weather if you’re heading to the State Fair!

Not so great if you’re heading to the beach and expecting to get in the water. Swimming and surfing conditions will be dangerous, with nearshore waves breaking at 3-4 feet. There is a high risk for rip currents through this evening. The beach hazards statement is for Virginia Beach, Accomack and Northampton Counties.

We will have a pleasant and peaceful evening, too. Temperatures will be near 70 around 6pm, dropping into the middle to upper 60s by 8. We’ll be in the low 60s around 10pm, so a sweatshirt may be needed if you’re out later this evening. Overnight we’ll have partly cloudy skies and a low near 56 degrees.

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the entire week. We start with some sun, but bring in clouds quickly as a cold front approaches. It will be breezy, so expect winds out of the SW at 10-15mph, with gusts up to 20 or so. We’ll see the chance for a few passing showers and storms late in the day into the later evening. We do have a low-end chance for a stronger or possibly severe storm late in the day. Tomorrow’s high will be in the low to middle 80s. Once the front clears, the showers quickly exit. Skies clear just as quickly heading into Monday. We’ll see a low Sunday night/early Monday of 59 degrees (middle 50s for typically cooler locations).

Monday we have sunny skies in the forecast with no chance of rain! We’ll top out near 80.

Tuesday right on through Thursday will be dry too. We’ll see another shot of seasonally cool air arrive for Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of what are now Tropical Storm Ian are expected to move up the coast and bring a pretty soggy Friday and Saturday to us here in Virginia. Because it is a tropical-originating storm coming from the southwest, it will draw in a bit warmer air with that rain, with highs Friday/Saturday in the middle/upper 70s. One thing to watch with the arrival of the remnants of Ian: even though it will have lost its tropical characteristics having been over land for a good while before it arrives here, we need to watch this week to see how strong the storm stays. We are poised to be in that infamous northwest quadrant of the storm which is known for the development of tornadoes. This could very well be a possibility with the arrival of the storm. Wind gusts are not expected to be damaging at this time, though rain amounts could cause flooding.

Tracking the Tropics:

After a very quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season prior to September, things have really heated up. We currently have FOUR named storms, THREE or which are tropical storms in the Atlantic. We’ll go in alphabetical order and start with Fiona. Fiona is now a post-tropical cyclone.   Although it’s lost its typical tropical characteristics (ie the warm air/water), it is still a very strong storm with winds of 100mph (which amounts to a category 2 hurricane. It’s really cooking, as it’s moving north at 40mph. The storm is currently bringing hurricane-force winds to Nova Scotia, and  is expected to move northward and impact Newfoundland.

Now onto G: Gaston. Gaston is way out there, expected to bring Tropical Storm Conditions to the western and central Azores today. Path brings it westward, though it’s expected to diminish in intensity—no worries about impact to the US.

H: Tropical Storm Hermine has formed off the western coast of Africa. Hermine is expected to hang out and not move very far in the next 5 days before diminishing. No impact to Virginia.

I: Tropical Storm Ian–the most important storm out there right now. Tropical Storm Ian is in the waters between South America and Haiti/Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica, as the storm is expected to pass to its west, but Ian is forecasted to rapidly intensify as it travels northward. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. Ian is expected to move northward over western Cuba as a strong hurricane, and become a major (category 3) hurricane just before it hits Florida. By the time Ian impacts Florida Wednesday and Thursday, it will likely be a category 2 hurricane. Heavy rain, hurricane force winds are expected to impact almost the entire state of Florida. The storm will lose its wind strength as it moves over land, but heavy rain will continue to spread northward through the SE states, and eventually spread heavy rain to Virginia by Friday and Saturday.

There is one area to watch—it has a 20% chance of further development in 72 hours, and a 30% in the 5 day.